Buccaneers vs Rams — Week 9, 2022
The Buccaneers took over trailing 13-9 with 0:44 left, 1st & 10 at their own 40, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 16, Rams 13. Buccaneers won 16-13 — the drive scored.
Buccaneers ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 40, 0:44 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 22.0% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 21.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (:44) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 88-C.Otton to LA 32 for 28 yards (24-T.Rapp).
- (:29) (No Huddle) 12-T.Brady spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 7-L.Fournette ran ob at LA 28 for 4 yards (6-D.Kendrick).
- (:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 10-S.Miller ran ob at LA 14 for 14 yards (6-D.Kendrick).
- (:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 10-S.Miller ran ob at LA 7 for 7 yards (5-J.Ramsey).
- (:13) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 88-C.Otton for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.21 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.06 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.21 pts |
| Deep post | +1.87 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.64 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.48 pts |
| QB keep | +1.29 pts |
| Play action | +1.11 pts |
| Quick out | +0.75 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.73 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.71 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.65 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.27 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.33 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Outside run | -1.20 pts |
| Inside run | -1.72 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.90 pts |
| Spike it | -2.06 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.