Seahawks vs Lions — Week 4, 2022
The Seahawks took over leading 48-45 with 1:04 left, 1st & 10 at the Lions 46, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 48, Lions 45. Seahawks won 48-45 — the drive time expired.
Seahawks ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. Near midfield, 1:04 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 94.7% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 90.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:04) 20-R.Penny up the middle to DET 45 for 1 yard (34-A.Anzalone, 24-A.Oruwariye).
- (1:01) 20-R.Penny left end to DET 41 for 4 yards (97-A.Hutchinson; 90-M.Brockers).
- (:58) 20-R.Penny left tackle to DET 34 for 7 yards (96-I.Buggs).
- (:54) 7-G.Smith kneels to DET 35 for -1 yards.
- (:30) 7-G.Smith kneels to DET 36 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.11 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.09 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.11 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.10 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.29 pts |
| Outside run | -0.30 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.48 pts |
| Quick out | -0.61 pts |
| Inside run | -0.67 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.67 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.75 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.79 pts |
| QB keep | -0.86 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.59 pts |
| Play action | -1.93 pts |
| Curl route | -2.25 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.41 pts |
| End-around | -4.63 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.23 pts |
| Deep post | -7.59 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.23 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.09 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.