Bills vs Vikings — Week 10, 2022
The Bills took over leading 27-23 with 4:28 left, 1st & 10 at their own 28, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Bills 30, Vikings 30. Tied 30-30 — the drive turned it over.
Bills ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 28, 4:28 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 80.7% for Bills. Our model starts at 80.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:28) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-D.Singletary to BUF 28 for no gain (99-D.Hunter).
- (3:45) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left to 14-S.Diggs.
- (3:40) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 14-S.Diggs (22-H.Smith).
- (3:34) 8-S.Martin punts 53 yards to MIN 24, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 5-J.Reagor.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.64 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.09 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.64 pts |
| Outside run | +0.04 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.03 pts |
| QB keep | -0.47 pts |
| Inside run | -0.50 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.53 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.53 pts |
| Quick out | -0.57 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.64 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.66 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.75 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.33 pts |
| Curl route | -1.83 pts |
| Play action | -1.83 pts |
| End-around | -4.08 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.21 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.91 pts |
| Deep post | -6.90 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.42 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.09 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.