Chargers vs Browns — Week 5, 2022
The Chargers took over leading 30-28 with 2:44 left, 1st & 10 at their own 17, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 30, Browns 28. Chargers won 30-28 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Chargers ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 17, 2:44 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 72.8% for Chargers. Our model starts at 70.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:44) 30-A.Ekeler left guard to LAC 18 for 1 yard (28-J.Owusu-Koramoah; 99-T.Bryan).
- (2:40) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 81-M.Williams to LAC 37 for 19 yards (23-M.Emerson).
- (2:30) 25-J.Kelley left guard to LAC 37 for no gain (22-G.Delpit, 99-T.Bryan).
- (2:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 81-M.Williams to LAC 44 for 7 yards (23-M.Emerson).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler left guard to LAC 46 for 2 yards (95-M.Garrett).
- (1:14) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 81-M.Williams (23-M.Emerson).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.65 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.38 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.65 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.20 pts |
| Outside run | +0.09 pts |
| QB keep | +0.05 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.10 pts |
| Quick out | -0.54 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -0.74 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.79 pts |
| Curl route | -0.81 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.89 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.91 pts |
| Play action | -1.17 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.42 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.19 pts |
| End-around | -3.66 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.74 pts |
| Deep post | -4.97 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.07 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.38 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.