Chiefs vs Raiders — Week 5, 2022
The Chiefs took over leading 30-29 with 4:21 left, 1st & 10 at their own 31, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 30, Raiders 29. Chiefs won 30-29 — the drive turned it over.
Chiefs ball, up 1 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 31, 4:21 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 73.5% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 64.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:21) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 24-S.Moore to KC 39 for 8 yards (25-T.Moehrig).
- (3:40) (Shotgun) 25-C.Edwards-Helaire right guard to KC 47 for 8 yards (30-D.Harmon).
- (2:54) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 24-S.Moore to LV 46 for 7 yards (25-T.Moehrig).
- (2:44) (Shotgun) 25-C.Edwards-Helaire right end to LV 46 for no gain (5-D.Deablo).
- (2:40) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to 17-M.Hardman [91-B.Nichols].
- (2:36) 5-T.Townsend punts 39 yards to LV 7, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 84-K.Cole.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.08 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-6.72 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.08 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.66 pts |
| QB keep | +0.39 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.20 pts |
| Outside run | +0.14 pts |
| Quick out | -0.03 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.14 pts |
| Curl route | -0.35 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.36 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.60 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -0.64 pts |
| Play action | -0.75 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.31 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.81 pts |
| End-around | -3.09 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.28 pts |
| Deep post | -4.42 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.43 pts |
| Flea flicker | -6.72 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.