Seahawks vs Cardinals — Week 9, 2022
The Seahawks took over leading 24-21 with 3:30 left, 1st & 10 at their own 15, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 31, Cardinals 21. Seahawks won 31-21 — the drive scored.
Seahawks ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 15, 3:30 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 72.9% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 75.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:30) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 87-N.Fant to ARI 34 for 51 yards (3-B.Baker).
- (2:39) 9-K.Walker right end to ARI 26 for 8 yards (94-Z.Allen).
- (2:34) 9-K.Walker up the middle to ARI 17 for 4 yards (95-L.Fotu; 44-M.Golden).
- (2:29) 9-K.Walker right end to ARI 5 for 12 yards (3-B.Baker).
- (2:20) 9-K.Walker right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.90 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.40 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.90 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.22 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.78 pts |
| Outside run | -0.78 pts |
| Quick out | -0.90 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.97 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.99 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.05 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.07 pts |
| QB keep | -1.16 pts |
| Inside run | -1.36 pts |
| Curl route | -1.75 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.10 pts |
| Play action | -3.58 pts |
| End-around | -4.23 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.67 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.30 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.00 pts |
| Deep post | -7.92 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.40 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.