Chargers vs Cardinals — Week 12, 2022
The Chargers took over trailing 24-17 with 1:48 left, 1st & 10 at the Cardinals 38, 1 timeout in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 25, Cardinals 24. Chargers won 25-24 — the drive scored.
Chargers ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. In Cardinals territory, 1:48 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 16.7% for Chargers. Our model starts at 15.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:48) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 7-G.Everett to ARI 28 for 10 yards (45-D.Gardeck) [21-T.Mullen].
- (1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 30-A.Ekeler to ARI 20 for 8 yards (34-J.Thompson).
- (:58) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 13-K.Allen to ARI 14 for 16 yards (33-A.Hamilton). ARI-45-D.Gardeck was injured during the play.
- (:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 7-G.Everett to ARI 11 for 3 yards (25-Z.Collins) [94-Z.Allen].
- (:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short middle to 30-A.Ekeler.
- (:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 30-A.Ekeler to ARI 1 for 10 yards (20-M.Wilson).
- (:18) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 30-A.Ekeler for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 10-J.Herbert pass to 7-G.Everett is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.57 pts), and the weakest was Field goal (-2.83 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.57 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.28 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.13 pts |
| QB keep | +0.86 pts |
| Quick out | +0.71 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.63 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.33 pts |
| Deep post | +0.13 pts |
| Play action | -0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.14 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.43 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.44 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.47 pts |
| Outside run | -0.92 pts |
| Inside run | -1.31 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.43 pts |
| Spike it | -1.57 pts |
| Field goal | -2.83 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.