Bills vs Vikings — Week 10, 2022
The Bills took over trailing 33-30 with 3:35 left, 1st & 10 at their own 28, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Bills 30, Vikings 30. Tied 30-30 — the drive turnover.
Bills ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 28, 3:35 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 31.6% for Bills. Our model starts at 34.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:35) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right guard to BUF 46 for 18 yards (39-C.Sullivan).
- (2:55) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles left end to MIN 34 for 20 yards (54-E.Kendricks).
- (2:11) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs to MIN 27 for 7 yards (23-A.Booth).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 14-S.Diggs to MIN 20 for 7 yards (54-E.Kendricks).
- (1:25) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 88-D.Knox (20-D.Shelley).
- (1:19) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle intended for 13-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 7-P.Peterson at MIN -2. 7-P.Peterson to MIN 5 for 7 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.42 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.68 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.42 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.23 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.16 pts |
| QB keep | +1.09 pts |
| Play action | +0.56 pts |
| Quick out | +0.50 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.38 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.06 pts |
| Deep post | -0.25 pts |
| Outside run | -0.47 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.47 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.53 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.61 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -1.22 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.54 pts |
| Spike it | -2.68 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.