Bills vs Dolphins — Week 3, 2022
The Bills took over trailing 21-19 with 1:25 left, 1st & 10 at their own 23, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Bills 19, Dolphins 21. Dolphins won 21-19 — the drive time expired.
Bills ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 23, 1:25 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 34.0% for Bills. Our model starts at 32.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:25) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 14-S.Diggs (8-J.Holland).
- (1:20) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-G.Davis to BUF 41 for 18 yards (29-Br.Jones).
- (:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 13-G.Davis (40-N.Needham).
- (:51) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 80-J.Crowder to 50 for 9 yards (21-E.Rowe).
- (:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 85-Q.Morris pushed ob at MIA 43 for 7 yards (21-E.Rowe).
- (:27) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right.
- (:18) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 6-I.McKenzie to MIA 41 for 12 yards (6-M.Ingram) [91-E.Ogbah].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.34 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.65 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.34 pts |
| QB keep | +1.98 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.87 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.80 pts |
| Play action | +1.23 pts |
| Deep post | +0.99 pts |
| Quick out | +0.94 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.80 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.42 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.32 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.22 pts |
| Outside run | -0.19 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.32 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.40 pts |
| Inside run | -1.10 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.38 pts |
| Spike it | -2.65 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.