Eagles vs Lions — Week 1, 2022
The Eagles took over leading 38-35 with 3:49 left, 1st & 10 at their own 19, 1 timeout in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 38, Lions 35. Eagles won 38-35 — the drive time expired.
Eagles ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 19, 3:49 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 73.8% for Eagles. Our model starts at 73.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:49) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders right tackle to PHI 22 for 3 yards (54-A.McNeill; 96-I.Buggs).
- (3:03) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders up the middle to PHI 27 for 5 yards (1-J.Okudah).
- (2:21) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders left tackle to DET 49 for 24 yards (1-J.Okudah).
- (2:00) 35-B.Scott right end to DET 48 for 1 yard (34-A.Anzalone).
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 35-B.Scott left tackle to DET 40 for 8 yards (5-D.Elliott).
- (1:50) (Shotgun) 35-B.Scott up the middle to DET 40 for no gain (44-M.Rodriguez).
- (1:06) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to DET 39 for 1 yard (55-D.Barnes).
- (:37) 1-J.Hurts kneels to DET 45 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.92 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.91 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.92 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.29 pts |
| Outside run | +0.11 pts |
| QB keep | -0.08 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.20 pts |
| Quick out | -0.36 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.45 pts |
| Inside run | -0.59 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.60 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.63 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.74 pts |
| Curl route | -1.06 pts |
| Play action | -1.28 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.33 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.49 pts |
| End-around | -3.59 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.08 pts |
| Deep post | -5.62 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.44 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.91 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.