Bears vs Dolphins — Week 9, 2022
The Bears took over trailing 35-32 with 2:38 left, 1st & 10 at their own 28, 1 timeout in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Bears 32, Dolphins 35. Dolphins won 35-32 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Bears ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 28, 2:38 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 37.0% for Bears. Our model starts at 30.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:38) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 11-D.Mooney to CHI 30 for 2 yards (28-K.Kohou).
- (2:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Fields scrambles left tackle to CHI 42 for 12 yards (92-Z.Sieler).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 24-K.Herbert left guard to CHI 44 for 2 yards (45-D.Riley; 2-B.Chubb).
- (1:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Fields sacked ob at CHI 42 for -2 yards (45-D.Riley).
- (1:35) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete deep left to 10-C.Claypool (27-K.Crossen).
- (1:29) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete short right to 19-E.St. Brown.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.83 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.53 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.83 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.45 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.43 pts |
| QB keep | +1.28 pts |
| Play action | +0.87 pts |
| Quick out | +0.68 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.56 pts |
| Deep post | +0.56 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.21 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.02 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.08 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| Outside run | -0.49 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.60 pts |
| Inside run | -1.24 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.52 pts |
| Spike it | -2.53 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.