Bengals vs Saints — Week 6, 2022
The Bengals took over leading 30-26 with 2:10 left, 1st & 10 at their own 40, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Saints.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 30, Saints 26. Bengals won 30-26 — the drive scored.
Bengals ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 40, 2:10 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 36.8% for Bengals. Our model starts at 89.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:10) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 10, YAC 50
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 9-J.Burrow pass to 83-T.Boyd is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.45 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-10.10 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.45 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.03 pts |
| Outside run | -0.01 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.18 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.39 pts |
| Inside run | -0.41 pts |
| Quick out | -0.49 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.54 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.61 pts |
| QB keep | -0.72 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.84 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.32 pts |
| Curl route | -2.29 pts |
| Play action | -4.25 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -6.79 pts |
| Deep corner | -7.60 pts |
| Deep post | -10.10 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.