Raiders vs Chiefs — Week 5, 2022
The Raiders took over trailing 30-29 with 2:29 left, 1st & 10 at their own 7, 1 timeout in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 29, Chiefs 30. Chiefs won 30-29 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Raiders ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. Backed up at their own 7, 2:29 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 37.8% for Raiders. Our model starts at 43.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:29) (Shotgun) 28-J.Jacobs up the middle to LV 15 for 8 yards (94-M.Herring).
- (2:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-J.Jacobs up the middle to LV 23 for 8 yards (38-L.Sneed).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 13-H.Renfrow to LV 32 for 9 yards (32-N.Bolton).
- (1:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short right.
- (1:32) (Shotgun) 28-J.Jacobs up the middle to LV 37 for 5 yards (32-N.Bolton; 26-D.Bush).
- (1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short right.
- (1:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 13-H.Renfrow to LV 46 for 9 yards (35-Ja.Watson).
- (:51) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 17-D.Adams ran ob at KC 39 for 15 yards. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Adams.
- (:47) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep middle to 17-D.Adams [32-N.Bolton].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB sneak (-1.13 pts), and the weakest was Deep corner (-3.34 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB sneak | -1.13 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.64 pts |
| QB keep | -1.66 pts |
| Quick out | -1.80 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.84 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.85 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.85 pts |
| Outside run | -1.99 pts |
| Screen pass | -2.01 pts |
| Curl route | -2.09 pts |
| Inside run | -2.10 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.57 pts |
| Play action | -2.68 pts |
| Deep post | -2.80 pts |
| Spike it | -2.93 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.03 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.34 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.