Commanders vs Colts — Week 8, 2022
The Commanders took over trailing 16-10 with 2:39 left, 1st & 10 at their own 11, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 17, Colts 16. Commanders won 17-16 — the drive scored.
Commanders ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 11, 2:39 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 13.4% for Commanders. Our model starts at 11.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:39) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin to WAS 17 for 6 yards (58-B.Okereke; 23-K.Moore).
- (2:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke scrambles up the middle to WAS 18 for 1 yard (90-G.Stewart).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 23-J.McKissic up the middle to WAS 20 for 2 yards (99-D.Buckner).
- (1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 10-C.Samuel to WAS 32 for 12 yards (26-R.McLeod).
- (1:26) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 23-J.McKissic to WAS 36 for 4 yards (44-Z.Franklin, 34-I.Rodgers) [99-D.Buckner]. IND-94-T.Lewis was injured during the play.
- (1:16) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke scrambles left end ran ob at WAS 45 for 9 yards (5-S.Gilmore).
- (1:06) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep middle to 89-C.Sims to IND 34 for 21 yards (32-J.Blackmon).
- (:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep left to 17-T.McLaurin to IND 1 for 33 yards (5-S.Gilmore).
- (:26) 4-T.Heinicke right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (-0.05 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.69 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | -0.05 pts |
| Curl route | -0.30 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.44 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.68 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.71 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.73 pts |
| Play action | -0.74 pts |
| QB keep | -0.89 pts |
| Quick out | -0.90 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.92 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.97 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.04 pts |
| Spike it | -1.28 pts |
| Inside run | -1.58 pts |
| Outside run | -1.63 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.69 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.