Jaguars vs Giants — Week 7, 2022
The Jaguars took over trailing 23-17 with 1:04 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 17, Giants 23. Giants won 23-17 — the drive time expired.
Jaguars ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 1:04 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 14.6% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 7.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:04) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 1-T.Etienne.
- (1:00) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 7-Z.Jones.
- (:55) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 13-C.Kirk pushed ob at JAX 35 for 10 yards (22-A.Jackson).
- (:35) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 13-C.Kirk (37-F.Moreau).
- (:32) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep middle to 11-M.Jones (37-F.Moreau).
- (:28) (Shotgun) 13-C.Kirk pass incomplete short right to 1-T.Etienne.
- (:22) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 11-M.Jones to NYG 32 for 28 yards (20-J.Love). PENALTY on NYG-99-L.Williams, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 32.
- (:16) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep right to 7-Z.Jones (22-A.Jackson).
- (:12) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep left to 11-M.Jones.
- (:07) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 13-C.Kirk to NYG 1 for 16 yards (29-X.McKinney, 20-J.Love).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+1.13 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.95 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +1.13 pts |
| Curl route | +0.96 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.66 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.57 pts |
| QB keep | +0.47 pts |
| Play action | +0.43 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.40 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.40 pts |
| Quick out | +0.26 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.22 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.04 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.21 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.29 pts |
| Outside run | -0.71 pts |
| Spike it | -0.87 pts |
| Inside run | -0.89 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.95 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.