Steelers vs Dolphins — Week 7, 2022
The Steelers took over trailing 16-10 with 2:31 left, 1st & 10 at their own 13, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 10, Dolphins 16. Dolphins won 16-10 — the drive turnover.
Steelers ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 13, 2:31 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 15.2% for Steelers. Our model starts at 10.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:31) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short right to 88-P.Freiermuth to PIT 20 for 7 yards (32-V.McKinley).
- (2:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short middle to 88-P.Freiermuth to PIT 28 for 8 yards (21-E.Rowe, 8-J.Holland) [6-M.Ingram].
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass incomplete short right.
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett sacked at PIT 28 for 0 yards (sack split by 94-C.Wilkins and 15-J.Phillips).
- (1:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short right to 11-C.Claypool to PIT 32 for 4 yards (20-J.Bethel, 25-X.Howard).
- (1:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep middle to 88-P.Freiermuth to MIA 47 for 21 yards (21-E.Rowe).
- (:49) (No Huddle) 8-K.Pickett spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:48) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short middle to 18-D.Johnson ran ob at MIA 33 for 14 yards (8-J.Holland).
- (:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short middle to 88-P.Freiermuth to MIA 25 for 8 yards (20-J.Bethel).
- (:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep left intended for 18-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 9-N.Igbinoghene at MIA -1. Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.21 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.48 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.21 pts |
| Curl route | +0.01 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.15 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.36 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.39 pts |
| Play action | -0.41 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.42 pts |
| QB keep | -0.48 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.56 pts |
| Quick out | -0.66 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.68 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.79 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.84 pts |
| Spike it | -1.10 pts |
| Inside run | -1.38 pts |
| Outside run | -1.38 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.48 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.