Bears vs Commanders — Week 6, 2022
The Bears took over trailing 12-7 with 1:49 left, 1st & 10 at their own 38, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Bears 7, Commanders 12. Commanders won 12-7 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Bears ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 38, 1:49 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 24.4% for Bears. Our model starts at 17.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:49) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields sacked at CHI 33 for -5 yards (93-J.Allen). FUMBLES (93-J.Allen) [93-J.Allen], recovered by CHI-32-D.Montgomery at CHI 33.
- (1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short right to 18-D.Pettis ran ob at CHI 43 for 10 yards.
- (1:26) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass short right to 32-D.Montgomery to WAS 44 for 13 yards (22-D.Forrest, 55-C.Holcomb).
- (1:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Fields scrambles left end pushed ob at WAS 5 for 39 yards (37-R.Wildgoose). WAS-93-J.Allen was injured during the play.
- (:52) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields scrambles right end pushed ob at WAS 4 for 1 yard (55-C.Holcomb).
- (:45) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete short right to 11-D.Mooney (96-J.Smith-Williams).
- (:42) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete short right to 18-D.Pettis (22-D.Forrest) [96-J.Smith-Williams]. WAS-22-D.Forrest was injured during the play. CHI-18-D.Pettis was injured during the play.
- (:35) 1-J.Fields pass short right to 11-D.Mooney pushed ob at WAS 1 for 3 yards (25-B.St-Juste).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.70 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.75 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.70 pts |
| Deep post | +1.44 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.25 pts |
| QB keep | +1.22 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.14 pts |
| Play action | +0.84 pts |
| Quick out | +0.56 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.50 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.48 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.47 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.17 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.32 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.37 pts |
| Outside run | -0.67 pts |
| Inside run | -1.18 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.32 pts |
| Spike it | -1.75 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.