Saints vs Falcons — Week 1, 2022
The Saints took over trailing 26-24 with 0:48 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Saints 27, Falcons 26. Saints won 27-26 — the drive scored.
Saints ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 20, 0:48 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 24.9% for Saints. Our model starts at 29.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (:48) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass deep left to 5-J.Landry ran ob at ATL 40 for 40 yards (27-R.Grant).
- (:38) (No Huddle) 2-J.Winston spiked the ball to stop the clock. PENALTY on NO-2-J.Winston, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 40.
- (:38) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston pass deep middle to 83-J.Johnson to ATL 33 for 17 yards (32-J.Hawkins).
- (:24) 2-J.Winston spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:23) 3-W.Lutz 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.49 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.53 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.49 pts |
| QB keep | +1.97 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.94 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.82 pts |
| Deep post | +1.49 pts |
| Play action | +1.31 pts |
| Quick out | +0.96 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.83 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.58 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.52 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.42 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.31 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Outside run | -0.67 pts |
| Inside run | -1.47 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.72 pts |
| Spike it | -2.53 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.