Browns vs Chargers — Week 5, 2022
The Browns took over trailing 30-28 with 1:10 left, 1st & 10 at the Chargers 45, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Browns 28, Chargers 30. Chargers won 30-28 — the drive missed field goal.
Browns ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. Near midfield, 1:10 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 48.5% for Browns. Our model starts at 50.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:10) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 10-A.Schwartz.
- (1:06) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 2-A.Cooper to LAC 35 for 10 yards (23-B.Callahan).
- (:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt left tackle to LAC 35 for no gain (3-D.James).
- (:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep left to 11-D.Peoples-Jones.
- (:20) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 11-D.Peoples-Jones.
- (:16) 3-C.York 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+2.49 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-3.03 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +2.49 pts |
| Curl route | +2.03 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.84 pts |
| Quick out | +1.44 pts |
| Quick hook | +1.28 pts |
| QB keep | +1.23 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.88 pts |
| Quick RPO | +0.09 pts |
| Play action | -0.43 pts |
| Outside run | -0.58 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.85 pts |
| Inside run | -1.51 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.00 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.07 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.33 pts |
| Deep post | -2.52 pts |
| Spike it | -3.03 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.