Falcons vs Rams — Week 2, 2022
The Falcons took over trailing 31-25 with 3:22 left, 1st & 10 at the Rams 37, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 27, Rams 31. Rams won 31-27 — the drive turnover.
Falcons ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. In Rams territory, 3:22 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 26.4% for Falcons. Our model starts at 26.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:22) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass short left to 5-D.London to LA 30 for 7 yards (24-T.Rapp).
- (2:44) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass short left to 5-D.London pushed ob at LA 21 for 9 yards (53-E.Jones).
- (2:38) (Shotgun) 25-T.Allgeier up the middle to LA 20 for 1 yard (58-J.Hollins).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota up the middle to LA 24 for -4 yards (58-J.Hollins).
- (1:18) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass deep middle intended for 89-B.Edwards INTERCEPTED by 5-J.Ramsey at LA -2. 5-J.Ramsey pushed ob at LA 23 for 25 yards (67-D.Dalman).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.63 pts), and the weakest was Field goal (-5.27 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.63 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.61 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.26 pts |
| QB keep | +1.10 pts |
| Quick out | +0.88 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.78 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.45 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.16 pts |
| Play action | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.58 pts |
| Outside run | -0.61 pts |
| Deep post | -1.17 pts |
| Inside run | -1.26 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.33 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.41 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.50 pts |
| Spike it | -2.33 pts |
| Field goal | -5.27 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.