Bengals vs Rams — Week 22, 2021
The Bengals took over trailing 23-20 with 1:25 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Rams.
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What really happened
Final: Bengals 20, Rams 23. Rams won 23-20 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Playoff football. Bengals ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 1:25 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 31.3% for Bengals. Our model starts at 26.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:25) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase ran ob at CIN 42 for 17 yards (33-N.Scott).
- (1:19) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 83-T.Boyd to LA 49 for 9 yards (20-E.Weddle) [40-V.Miller].
- (:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep right to 1-J.Chase.
- (:48) (Shotgun) 34-S.Perine right tackle to LA 49 for no gain (91-G.Gaines; 99-A.Donald).
- (:43) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short right to 34-S.Perine [99-A.Donald].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.23 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.38 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.23 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.71 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.61 pts |
| QB keep | +1.43 pts |
| Deep post | +1.37 pts |
| Play action | +1.14 pts |
| Quick out | +0.82 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.70 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.48 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.42 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.32 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.34 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.58 pts |
| Outside run | -0.72 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.93 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.96 pts |
| Inside run | -1.43 pts |
| End-around | -1.65 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.67 pts |
| Spike it | -2.38 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.