Raiders vs Bears — Week 5, 2021
The Raiders took over trailing 17-9 with 2:45 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 9, Bears 20. Bears won 20-9 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Raiders ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 25, 2:45 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 6.5% for Raiders. Our model starts at 6.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:45) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LV 23 for -2 yards (38-Ta.Gipson).
- (2:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short right to 13-H.Renfrow.
- (2:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 13-H.Renfrow to LV 30 for 12 yards (4-E.Jackson).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep middle to 89-B.Edwards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.69 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.80 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.69 pts |
| Curl route | +0.65 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.43 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.39 pts |
| QB keep | +0.31 pts |
| Play action | +0.25 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.18 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.18 pts |
| Quick out | +0.15 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.11 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.03 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.12 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.22 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.23 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.27 pts |
| Outside run | -0.60 pts |
| End-around | -0.74 pts |
| Inside run | -0.75 pts |
| Spike it | -0.77 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.80 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.