Seahawks vs Commanders — Week 12, 2021
The Seahawks took over trailing 17-9 with 2:19 left, 1st & 10 at their own 4, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 15, Commanders 17. Commanders won 17-15 — the drive scored.
Seahawks ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. Backed up at their own 4, 2:19 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 3.3% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 4.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:19) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 81-G.Everett ran ob at SEA 16 for 12 yards.
- (2:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 31-D.Dallas ran ob at SEA 17 for 1 yard (23-W.Jackson).
- (2:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 31-D.Dallas to SEA 21 for 4 yards (55-C.Holcomb).
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at SEA 31 for -9 yards (58-S.Toney).
- (1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 31-D.Dallas to SEA 44 for 13 yards (55-C.Holcomb; 26-L.Collins).
- (1:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 14-D.Metcalf ran ob at WAS 43 for 13 yards [98-M.Ioannidis]. WAS-26-L.Collins was injured during the play.
- (1:02) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short middle to 81-G.Everett [98-M.Ioannidis].
- (:57) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 81-G.Everett to WAS 39 for 4 yards (31-K.Curl).
- (:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 31-D.Dallas to WAS 32 for 7 yards (31-K.Curl).
- (:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 18-F.Swain for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 3-R.Wilson pass to 18-F.Swain is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (-0.28 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-0.98 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | -0.28 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.34 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.41 pts |
| Quick out | -0.43 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.44 pts |
| QB keep | -0.46 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.46 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.50 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.54 pts |
| Spike it | -0.56 pts |
| Curl route | -0.57 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.58 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.61 pts |
| Play action | -0.62 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.69 pts |
| Inside run | -0.80 pts |
| Outside run | -0.84 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.84 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.85 pts |
| End-around | -0.98 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.