Vikings vs 49ers — Week 12, 2021
The Vikings took over trailing 34-26 with 1:56 left, 1st & 10 at their own 32, 0 timeouts in hand, against the 49ers.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 26, 49ers 34. 49ers won 34-26 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Vikings ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 32, 1:56 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 5.1% for Vikings. Our model starts at 5.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 17-K.Osborn to MIN 37 for 5 yards (4-E.Moseley). Caught at Min 37. 0-YAC
- (1:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 18-J.Jefferson to SF 40 for 23 yards (1-J.Ward). Caught at SF 41. 1-YAC
- (1:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 25-A.Mattison.
- (1:15) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 25-A.Mattison to SF 38 for 2 yards (51-A.Al-Shaair). Caught at SF 43. 5-YAC
- (:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 17-K.Osborn (24-K.Williams).
- (:50) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 18-J.Jefferson.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.74 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.71 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.74 pts |
| Curl route | +0.62 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.42 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.36 pts |
| QB keep | +0.29 pts |
| Play action | +0.26 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.23 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.23 pts |
| Quick out | +0.15 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.12 pts |
| Flea flicker | +0.00 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.01 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.13 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.18 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.23 pts |
| Outside run | -0.55 pts |
| Spike it | -0.64 pts |
| End-around | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -0.67 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.71 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.