Texans vs Dolphins — Week 9, 2021
The Texans took over trailing 17-9 with 2:57 left, 1st & 10 at their own 19, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Texans 9, Dolphins 17. Dolphins won 17-9 — the drive turnover.
Texans ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 19, 2:57 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 4.7% for Texans. Our model starts at 5.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:57) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short middle to 12-N.Collins to HOU 30 for 11 yards (29-Br.Jones; 21-E.Rowe).
- (2:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass incomplete short right to 88-J.Akins (21-E.Rowe). Miami challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short right to 88-J.Akins to HOU 37 for 7 yards (21-E.Rowe). FUMBLES (21-E.Rowe), RECOVERED by MIA-29-Br.Jones at HOU 34.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.51 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.75 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.51 pts |
| Curl route | +0.47 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.29 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.24 pts |
| QB keep | +0.17 pts |
| Play action | +0.13 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.09 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.08 pts |
| Quick out | +0.04 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.01 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.11 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.17 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.25 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.27 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.31 pts |
| Outside run | -0.58 pts |
| Spike it | -0.67 pts |
| Inside run | -0.71 pts |
| End-around | -0.71 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.75 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.