Broncos vs Steelers — Week 5, 2021
The Broncos took over trailing 27-19 with 2:29 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Broncos 19, Steelers 27. Steelers won 27-19 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Broncos ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 25, 2:29 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 4.6% for Broncos. Our model starts at 5.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:29) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass incomplete short right. Pressure 90-Watt.
- (2:25) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short middle to 81-T.Patrick to DEN 48 for 23 yards (23-J.Haden).
- (2:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short middle to 87-N.Fant to PIT 46 for 6 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short middle to 33-J.Williams to PIT 37 for 9 yards (35-A.Maulet).
- (1:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 87-N.Fant to PIT 32 for 5 yards (21-T.Norwood).
- (1:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass incomplete deep left to 14-C.Sutton (42-J.Pierre).
- (1:03) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep left to 9-K.Hinton ran ob at PIT 9 for 23 yards.
- (:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass incomplete short right to 81-T.Patrick (23-J.Haden).
- (:50) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 25-M.Gordon to PIT 3 for 6 yards (93-J.Schobert; 34-Te.Edmunds).
- (:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass incomplete short right to 11-D.Spencer. Coverage by 34-Edmunds.
- (:17) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left intended for 14-C.Sutton INTERCEPTED by 42-J.Pierre at PIT -8. Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.65 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.70 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.65 pts |
| Curl route | +0.58 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.39 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.34 pts |
| QB keep | +0.27 pts |
| Play action | +0.23 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.19 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.19 pts |
| Quick out | +0.13 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.10 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.02 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.06 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.17 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.19 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.23 pts |
| Outside run | -0.53 pts |
| End-around | -0.64 pts |
| Spike it | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -0.66 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.70 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.