49ers vs Rams — Week 21, 2021
The 49ers took over trailing 20-17 with 1:46 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Rams.
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What really happened
Final: 49ers 17, Rams 20. Rams won 20-17 — the drive turnover.
Playoff football. 49ers ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 1:46 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 27.9% for 49ers. Our model starts at 26.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:46) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short right to 23-J.Hasty (91-G.Gaines).
- (1:42) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 15-J.Jennings to SF 22 for -3 yards (32-T.Howard).
- (1:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left intended for 23-J.Hasty INTERCEPTED by 32-T.Howard [99-A.Donald] at SF 19. 32-T.Howard to SF 13 for 6 yards (66-T.Compton).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.11 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.37 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.11 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.63 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.54 pts |
| QB keep | +1.38 pts |
| Deep post | +1.20 pts |
| Play action | +1.07 pts |
| Quick out | +0.78 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.66 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.39 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.32 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.30 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.35 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Outside run | -0.62 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.00 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.07 pts |
| Inside run | -1.33 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.57 pts |
| End-around | -1.58 pts |
| Spike it | -2.37 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.