Packers vs 49ers — Week 20, 2021
The Packers took over tied at 10 with 4:36 left, 1st & 10 at their own 29, 2 timeouts in hand, against the 49ers.
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What really happened
Final: Packers 10, 49ers 13. 49ers won 13-10 — the drive turned it over.
Playoff football. Packers ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 29, 4:36 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 56.6% for Packers. Our model starts at 55.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:28) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-D.Adams to GB 28 for 4 yards (27-D.Johnson).
- (3:44) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 18-R.Cobb (24-K.Williams).
- (3:40) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep middle to 17-D.Adams.
- (3:33) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 57 yards to SF 20, Center-46-S.Wirtel. 17-T.Benjamin to SF 29 for 9 yards (81-J.Deguara).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.81 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.48 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.81 pts |
| QB keep | +0.62 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.57 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.46 pts |
| Curl route | +0.17 pts |
| Quick out | +0.11 pts |
| Outside run | +0.02 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.01 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.26 pts |
| Play action | -0.37 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.65 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.68 pts |
| Inside run | -0.80 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.36 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.17 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.53 pts |
| End-around | -2.68 pts |
| Spike it | -2.92 pts |
| Deep post | -3.23 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.44 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.48 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.