Rams vs Buccaneers — Week 20, 2021
The Rams took over leading 27-20 with 3:15 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
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What really happened
Final: Rams 30, Buccaneers 27. Rams won 30-27 — the drive turnover.
Playoff football. Rams ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 20, 3:15 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.6% for Rams. Our model starts at 92.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:15) 23-C.Akers up the middle to LA 23 for 3 yards (58-S.Barrett).
- (2:32) 23-C.Akers right tackle to LA 26 for 3 yards (93-N.Suh). FUMBLES (93-N.Suh), RECOVERED by TB-54-L.David at LA 30.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.41 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.72 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.41 pts |
| Outside run | -0.25 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Inside run | -0.52 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.54 pts |
| Quick out | -0.96 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.00 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.03 pts |
| QB keep | -1.17 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.27 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.46 pts |
| Play action | -2.63 pts |
| Curl route | -2.92 pts |
| End-around | -4.96 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.14 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.02 pts |
| Deep post | -8.62 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.82 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.72 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.