Titans vs Bengals — Week 20, 2021
The Titans took over tied at 16 with 2:43 left, 1st & 10 at their own 16, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
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What really happened
Final: Titans 16, Bengals 19. Bengals won 19-16 — the drive turnover.
Playoff football. Titans ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 16, 2:43 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 55.2% for Titans. Our model starts at 53.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:43) 22-D.Henry right end to TEN 19 for 3 yards (22-C.Awuzie).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 2-J.Jones to TEN 35 for 16 yards (20-E.Apple, 55-L.Wilson). CIN-91-T.Hendrickson was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
- (1:46) 22-D.Henry left tackle to TEN 35 for no gain (98-D.Reader).
- (1:08) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 40-D.Hilliard to TEN 40 for 5 yards (55-L.Wilson).
- (:28) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left intended for 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine INTERCEPTED by 55-L.Wilson (20-E.Apple) at CIN 47. 55-L.Wilson to CIN 47 for no gain (86-A.Firkser).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.41 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.12 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.41 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.24 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.20 pts |
| Curl route | +0.04 pts |
| QB keep | -0.14 pts |
| Quick out | -0.63 pts |
| Play action | -0.65 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.73 pts |
| Outside run | -0.88 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.95 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.25 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.34 pts |
| Inside run | -1.74 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.07 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.22 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.41 pts |
| Deep post | -2.65 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
| End-around | -3.31 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.37 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.12 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.