Chiefs vs Bills — Week 20, 2021
The Chiefs took over trailing 29-26 with 1:54 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bills.
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What really happened
Final: Chiefs 36, Bills 36. Tied 36-36 — the drive scored.
Playoff football. Chiefs ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 1:54 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 34.8% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 29.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to 1-J.McKinnon.
- (1:47) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short left to 11-D.Robinson.
- (1:39) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce to KC 36 for 11 yards (24-Ta.Johnson).
- (1:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short left to 1-J.McKinnon.
- (1:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 10-T.Hill for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.09 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.50 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.09 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.63 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.56 pts |
| QB keep | +1.40 pts |
| Play action | +1.04 pts |
| Deep post | +0.98 pts |
| Quick out | +0.77 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.65 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.28 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.26 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.18 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Outside run | -0.64 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.21 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.35 pts |
| Inside run | -1.39 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.65 pts |
| End-around | -1.72 pts |
| Spike it | -2.50 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.