Cowboys vs 49ers — Week 19, 2021
The Cowboys took over trailing 23-17 with 2:42 left, 1st & 10 at their own 16, 3 timeouts in hand, against the 49ers.
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What really happened
Final: Cowboys 17, 49ers 23. 49ers won 23-17 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Playoff football. Cowboys ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 16, 2:42 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 17.1% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 12.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 86-D.Schultz (90-K.Givens). 90-K.Givens deflected pass in the backfield.
- (2:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 86-D.Schultz pushed ob at SF 46 for 38 yards (1-J.Ward).
- (2:29) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at SF 47 for -1 yards (sack split by 90-K.Givens and 92-C.Omenihu).
- (2:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Lamb.
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 21-E.Elliott [91-A.Armstead]. Penalty on DAL-77-T.Smith, Offensive Holding, declined.
- (1:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 1-C.Wilson [1-J.Ward].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.49 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.55 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.49 pts |
| Curl route | +0.44 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.20 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.04 pts |
| Play action | -0.10 pts |
| QB keep | -0.12 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.18 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.21 pts |
| Quick out | -0.33 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.36 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.53 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.70 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.70 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.76 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.86 pts |
| Outside run | -1.24 pts |
| Spike it | -1.29 pts |
| Inside run | -1.47 pts |
| End-around | -1.54 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.55 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.