Bengals vs Raiders — Week 19, 2021
The Bengals took over leading 26-19 with 3:29 left, 1st & 10 at their own 26, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
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What really happened
Final: Bengals 26, Raiders 19. Bengals won 26-19 — the drive turned it over.
Playoff football. Bengals ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 26, 3:29 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 93.0% for Bengals. Our model starts at 92.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:29) 28-J.Mixon left tackle to CIN 24 for -2 yards (98-M.Crosby, 94-C.Nassib).
- (2:43) 1-J.Chase right end to CIN 25 for 1 yard (10-D.Trufant; 98-M.Crosby).
- (2:35) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 87-C.Uzomah to CIN 32 for 7 yards (39-N.Hobbs; 34-K.Wright).
- (2:00) 10-K.Huber punts 33 yards to LV 35, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-31-Mi.Thomas.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.29 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.76 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.29 pts |
| Outside run | -0.27 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Inside run | -0.53 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.57 pts |
| Quick out | -0.99 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.02 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.05 pts |
| QB keep | -1.20 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.31 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.48 pts |
| Play action | -2.66 pts |
| Curl route | -2.96 pts |
| End-around | -4.98 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.18 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.05 pts |
| Deep post | -8.67 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.86 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.76 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.