Titans vs Texans — Week 18, 2021
The Titans took over leading 28-25 with 4:00 left, 1st & 10 at their own 28, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Titans 28, Texans 25. Titans won 28-25 — the drive time expired.
Titans ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 28, 4:00 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 74.7% for Titans. Our model starts at 77.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:00) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 11-A.Brown to TEN 44 for 16 yards (43-N.Hewitt).
- (3:41) 62-A.Brewer reported in as eligible. 7-D.Foreman left end to TEN 42 for -2 yards (58-C.Kirksey, 43-N.Hewitt).
- (2:58) 40-D.Hilliard up the middle to HOU 48 for 10 yards (8-T.Brooks).
- (2:53) (Shotgun) 40-D.Hilliard left guard to HOU 46 for 2 yards (55-D.Walker). Houston challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #3.)
- (2:22) 40-D.Hilliard left tackle to HOU 46 for no gain (23-E.Murray).
- (2:00) 40-D.Hilliard left end to HOU 35 for 11 yards (25-D.King).
- (1:17) 17-R.Tannehill kneels to HOU 36 for -1 yards.
- (:39) 17-R.Tannehill kneels to HOU 37 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.60 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.44 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.60 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.26 pts |
| Outside run | +0.17 pts |
| QB keep | -0.13 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.32 pts |
| Quick out | -0.34 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.43 pts |
| Inside run | -0.46 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.50 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.53 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.57 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.26 pts |
| Curl route | -1.31 pts |
| Play action | -1.44 pts |
| End-around | -3.75 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.77 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.41 pts |
| Deep post | -6.18 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.85 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.44 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.