Patriots vs Cowboys — Week 6, 2021
The Patriots took over leading 21-20 with 2:42 left, 1st & 10 at their own 41, 1 timeout in hand, against the Cowboys.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 29, Cowboys 29. Tied 29-29 — the drive turnover.
Patriots ball, up 1 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 41, 2:42 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 75.8% for Patriots. Our model starts at 70.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:42) 37-D.Harris right guard to NE 41 for no gain (55-L.Vander Esch).
- (2:36) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle intended for 84-K.Bourne INTERCEPTED by 7-T.Diggs at NE 42. 7-T.Diggs for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 7-Diggs now has a Int in 6 consecutive games to start the season, ties NFL record (Landry, Russell, Wilburn).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.23 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.06 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.23 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.95 pts |
| QB keep | +0.63 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.49 pts |
| Outside run | +0.42 pts |
| Quick out | +0.20 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.09 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.13 pts |
| Curl route | -0.15 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.35 pts |
| Inside run | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.49 pts |
| Play action | -0.56 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.13 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.77 pts |
| End-around | -3.10 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.30 pts |
| Deep post | -4.61 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.64 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.06 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.