Raiders vs Broncos — Week 16, 2021
The Raiders took over leading 17-13 with 3:54 left, 1st & 10 at their own 11, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 17, Broncos 13. Raiders won 17-13 — the drive time expired.
Raiders ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 11, 3:54 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 75.2% for Raiders. Our model starts at 80.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:54) 28-J.Jacobs left guard to LV 15 for 4 yards (50-J.Griffith; 55-B.Chubb).
- (3:10) 28-J.Jacobs right guard to LV 28 for 13 yards (31-J.Simmons; 55-B.Chubb).
- (3:02) 28-J.Jacobs left guard to LV 31 for 3 yards (59-M.Reed).
- (2:57) 28-J.Jacobs left guard to LV 36 for 5 yards (56-B.Browning; 55-B.Chubb).
- (2:10) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 87-F.Moreau to DEN 36 for 28 yards (31-J.Simmons).
- (2:00) 4-D.Carr kneels to DEN 37 for -1 yards.
- (1:18) 4-D.Carr kneels to DEN 38 for -1 yards.
- (:37) 4-D.Carr kneels to DEN 39 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.88 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.45 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.88 pts |
| Outside run | -0.78 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.83 pts |
| Inside run | -1.00 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.15 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.22 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.50 pts |
| Quick out | -1.63 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.67 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.70 pts |
| QB keep | -1.80 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.85 pts |
| Play action | -2.71 pts |
| Curl route | -2.75 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.75 pts |
| End-around | -4.96 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.47 pts |
| Deep post | -7.25 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.98 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.45 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.