Titans vs 49ers — Week 16, 2021
The Titans took over tied at 17 with 2:16 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the 49ers.
What really happened
Final: Titans 20, 49ers 17. Titans won 20-17 — the drive scored.
Titans ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 2:16 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 63.7% for Titans. Our model starts at 57.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:16) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 87-G.Swaim to TEN 31 for 6 yards (36-M.Harris).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 28-J.McNichols left tackle to TEN 36 for 5 yards (54-F.Warner).
- (1:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 87-G.Swaim to TEN 40 for 4 yards (36-M.Harris).
- (1:20) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill scrambles up the middle to SF 31 for 23 yards (3-J.Tartt).
- (1:05) (Shotgun) 28-J.McNichols up the middle to SF 26 for 5 yards (1-J.Ward).
- (:59) (Shotgun) 40-D.Hilliard up the middle to SF 25 for 1 yard (93-D.Jones).
- (:54) 17-R.Tannehill right end to SF 26 for -1 yards (91-A.Armstead).
- (:09) 14-R.Bullock 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.48 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.04 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.48 pts |
| QB keep | +1.24 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.20 pts |
| Curl route | +1.05 pts |
| Quick out | +0.61 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.47 pts |
| Play action | +0.29 pts |
| Outside run | +0.21 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.15 pts |
| Take a knee | -0.08 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.58 pts |
| Inside run | -0.76 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.34 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.56 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.92 pts |
| Deep post | -2.46 pts |
| End-around | -2.53 pts |
| Spike it | -2.92 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.01 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.04 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.