Chiefs vs Broncos — Week 18, 2021
The Chiefs took over leading 28-24 with 4:37 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 28, Broncos 24. Chiefs won 28-24 — the drive time expired.
Chiefs ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 25, 4:37 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 76.1% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 79.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 17-M.Hardman to DEN 31 for 44 yards (31-J.Simmons, 55-B.Chubb).
- (3:48) (Shotgun) 1-J.McKinnon left end to DEN 27 for 4 yards (29-B.Callahan).
- (3:42) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-J.McKinnon to DEN 19 for 8 yards (13-M.Ojemudia).
- (3:33) 1-J.McKinnon left end to DEN 17 for 2 yards (30-C.Sterns).
- (2:50) 1-J.McKinnon left tackle to DEN 12 for 5 yards (99-S.Stephen; 56-B.Browning).
- (2:03) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to DEN 5 for 12 yards (30-C.Sterns).
- (1:58) 15-P.Mahomes kneels to DEN 7 for -2 yards.
- (1:19) 15-P.Mahomes kneels to DEN 8 for -1 yards.
- (:39) 15-P.Mahomes kneels to DEN 9 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.61 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.98 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.61 pts |
| Outside run | +0.02 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.02 pts |
| QB keep | -0.45 pts |
| Inside run | -0.53 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.56 pts |
| Quick out | -0.56 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.57 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.64 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.65 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.76 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.35 pts |
| Curl route | -1.78 pts |
| Play action | -1.80 pts |
| End-around | -4.04 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.16 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.84 pts |
| Deep post | -6.79 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.32 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.98 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.