Cardinals vs Cowboys — Week 17, 2021
The Cardinals took over leading 25-22 with 4:42 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Cowboys.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 25, Cowboys 22. Cardinals won 25-22 — the drive time expired.
Cardinals ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 25, 4:42 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 74.6% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 73.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:42) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep right to 13-C.Kirk.
- (4:36) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray left end to ARI 40 for 15 yards (28-M.Hooker).
- (3:51) (Shotgun) 2-C.Edmonds up the middle to ARI 43 for 3 yards (55-L.Vander Esch, 92-D.Armstrong).
- (3:10) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz to DAL 46 for 11 yards (30-A.Brown).
- (3:01) (Shotgun) 2-C.Edmonds right end to DAL 35 for 11 yards (11-M.Parsons).
- (2:51) (Shotgun) 2-C.Edmonds left end to DAL 29 for 6 yards (94-R.Gregory; 90-D.Lawrence).
- (2:03) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray left end to DAL 20 for 9 yards (6-D.Wilson).
- (1:58) 1-K.Murray kneels to DAL 21 for -1 yards.
- (1:16) 1-K.Murray kneels to DAL 22 for -1 yards.
- (:35) 1-K.Murray kneels to DAL 23 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.53 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.08 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.53 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.23 pts |
| Outside run | +0.09 pts |
| QB keep | -0.12 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.34 pts |
| Quick out | -0.37 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.46 pts |
| Inside run | -0.56 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.60 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.61 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.62 pts |
| Curl route | -1.23 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.32 pts |
| Play action | -1.40 pts |
| End-around | -3.63 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.65 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.24 pts |
| Deep post | -5.86 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.57 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.08 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.