Rams vs 49ers — Week 18, 2021
The Rams took over trailing 27-24 with 2:39 left, 1st & 10 at their own 18, 1 timeout in hand, against the 49ers.
What really happened
Final: Rams 24, 49ers 24. Tied 24-24 — the drive turnover.
Rams ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 18, 2:39 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 23.3% for Rams. Our model starts at 26.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:39) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 3-O.Beckham.
- (2:35) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 3-O.Beckham [94-J.Willis].
- (2:27) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee pushed ob at LA 34 for 9 yards (57-D.Greenlaw; 1-J.Ward).
- (2:17) (Shotgun) 25-S.Michel up the middle to LA 38 for 4 yards (91-A.Armstead).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right intended for 3-O.Beckham INTERCEPTED by 20-A.Thomas [98-A.Key] at SF 20. 20-A.Thomas ran ob at SF 20 for no gain.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.23 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.35 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.23 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.90 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.76 pts |
| QB keep | +0.57 pts |
| Deep post | +0.40 pts |
| Play action | +0.36 pts |
| Quick out | +0.08 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.01 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.24 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.30 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.34 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.81 pts |
| Outside run | -1.02 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.12 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.58 pts |
| Inside run | -1.64 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.65 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.86 pts |
| End-around | -2.00 pts |
| Spike it | -2.35 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.