Titans vs Steelers — Week 15, 2021
The Titans took over trailing 19-13 with 4:29 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Titans 13, Steelers 19. Steelers won 19-13 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Titans ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 4:29 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 18.4% for Titans. Our model starts at 16.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:29) 7-D.Foreman left guard to TEN 45 for 20 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
- (4:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-D.Foreman right tackle to PIT 49 for 6 yards (93-J.Schobert, 34-Te.Edmunds).
- (3:42) (No Huddle) 7-D.Foreman left guard to PIT 42 for 7 yards (90-T.Watt). TEN-7-D.Foreman was injured during the play.
- (3:16) (Shotgun) 28-J.McNichols up the middle to PIT 39 for 3 yards (56-A.Highsmith).
- (2:56) (No Huddle) 28-J.McNichols right end to PIT 38 for 1 yard (35-A.Maulet).
- (2:28) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 40-D.Hilliard to PIT 33 for 5 yards (93-J.Schobert).
- (2:12) 71-K.Lamm reported in as eligible. 7-D.Foreman right tackle to PIT 32 for 1 yard (39-M.Fitzpatrick; 41-R.Spillane). Official measurement.
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine to PIT 23 for 9 yards (20-C.Sutton).
- (1:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill scrambles up the middle to PIT 19 for 4 yards (93-J.Schobert; 41-R.Spillane).
- (1:11) (Shotgun) 7-D.Foreman right tackle to PIT 16 for 3 yards (34-Te.Edmunds). PIT-90-T.Watt was injured during the play.
- (:59) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at PIT 24 for -8 yards (48-D.Tuszka). FUMBLES (48-D.Tuszka), recovered by TEN-62-A.Brewer at PIT 24. Penalty on TEN-72-D.Quessenberry, Offensive Holding, declined.
- (:53) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 80-C.Rogers to PIT 16 for 8 yards (21-T.Norwood).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.92 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.65 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.92 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.66 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.66 pts |
| QB keep | +0.57 pts |
| Deep post | +0.35 pts |
| Play action | +0.33 pts |
| Quick out | +0.23 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.16 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.06 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.10 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.15 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.47 pts |
| Outside run | -0.65 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.93 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.99 pts |
| Inside run | -1.04 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.19 pts |
| End-around | -1.24 pts |
| Spike it | -1.65 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.