Jaguars vs Jets — Week 16, 2021
The Jaguars took over trailing 26-21 with 1:47 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 21, Jets 26. Jets won 26-21 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Jaguars ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 1:47 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 21.7% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 14.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:47) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 7-T.Austin ran ob at JAX 42 for 17 yards.
- (1:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 80-J.O'Shaughnessy to 50 for 8 yards (56-Qu.Williams).
- (1:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 80-J.O'Shaughnessy to NYJ 43 for 7 yards (56-Qu.Williams). JAX-80-J.O'Shaughnessy was injured during the play.
- (1:13) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 11-M.Jones ran ob at NYJ 37 for 6 yards.
- (1:10) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 33-D.Ogunbowale ran ob at NYJ 31 for 6 yards (37-B.Hall).
- (1:02) (Shotgun) 33-D.Ogunbowale up the middle to NYJ 31 for no gain (57-C.Mosley; 47-B.Huff).
- (:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles left end ran ob at NYJ 5 for 26 yards (26-B.Echols).
- (:32) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 33-D.Ogunbowale.
- (:29) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 11-M.Jones to NYJ 1 for 4 yards (26-B.Echols).
- (:13) (No Huddle) 16-T.Lawrence spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:12) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 11-M.Jones (40-J.Guidry). Penalty on JAX, Illegal Shift, declined.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.45 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.47 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.45 pts |
| Deep post | +1.35 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.04 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.93 pts |
| QB keep | +0.80 pts |
| Play action | +0.69 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.46 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.45 pts |
| Quick out | +0.44 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.37 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.11 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.21 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.29 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Outside run | -0.79 pts |
| Inside run | -1.16 pts |
| End-around | -1.17 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.27 pts |
| Spike it | -1.47 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.