Rams vs Ravens — Week 17, 2021
The Rams took over trailing 19-14 with 4:30 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Ravens.
What really happened
Final: Rams 20, Ravens 19. Rams won 20-19 — the drive scored.
Rams ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 4:30 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 22.8% for Rams. Our model starts at 22.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:30) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 89-T.Higbee to LA 40 for 15 yards (26-G.Stone).
- (3:34) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 10-C.Kupp to BAL 36 for 24 yards (26-G.Stone).
- (2:47) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 10-C.Kupp pushed ob at BAL 32 for 4 yards (25-T.Young).
- (2:43) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 18-B.Skowronek to BAL 17 for 15 yards (26-G.Stone) [93-C.Campbell].
- (2:02) 25-S.Michel left guard to BAL 9 for 8 yards (93-C.Campbell).
- (1:59) 25-S.Michel right guard to BAL 08 for 1 yard (36-C.Clark; 56-J.Bynes).
- (1:20) 25-S.Michel left end to BAL 12 for -4 yards (22-J.Smith).
- (1:08) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 3-O.Beckham to BAL 07 for 5 yards (25-T.Young).
- (1:01) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 3-O.Beckham for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 9-M.Stafford pass to 3-O.Beckham is complete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.04 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.04 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.04 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.80 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.77 pts |
| QB keep | +0.70 pts |
| Play action | +0.35 pts |
| Quick out | +0.28 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.19 pts |
| Deep post | +0.13 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.07 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.27 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.34 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.50 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.56 pts |
| Outside run | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -1.15 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.32 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.36 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.47 pts |
| End-around | -1.50 pts |
| Spike it | -2.04 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.