Browns vs Chiefs — Week 1, 2021
The Browns took over trailing 33-29 with 2:49 left, 1st & 10 at their own 17, 1 timeout in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Browns 29, Chiefs 33. Chiefs won 33-29 — the drive turnover.
Browns ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 17, 2:49 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 23.7% for Browns. Our model starts at 20.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:49) 27-K.Hunt right end to CLE 22 for 5 yards (49-D.Sorensen).
- (2:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 27-K.Hunt to CLE 25 for 3 yards (56-B.Niemann).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 29 for 4 yards (35-C.Ward).
- (1:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 27-K.Hunt to CLE 48 for 19 yards (95-C.Jones).
- (1:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left intended for 88-H.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Hughes [49-D.Sorensen] at KC 42. 21-M.Hughes to KC 42 for no gain (88-H.Bryant).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.84 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.97 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.84 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.54 pts |
| Deep post | +0.45 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.37 pts |
| QB keep | +0.17 pts |
| Play action | +0.10 pts |
| Quick out | -0.19 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.26 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.26 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.32 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.50 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.89 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.98 pts |
| Outside run | -1.24 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.28 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.33 pts |
| Inside run | -1.70 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.86 pts |
| End-around | -1.92 pts |
| Spike it | -1.97 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.