Commanders vs Giants — Week 2, 2021
The Commanders took over trailing 26-20 with 4:50 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 30, Giants 29. Commanders won 30-29 — the drive scored.
Commanders ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 4:50 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 20.3% for Commanders. Our model starts at 18.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:50) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep right to 41-J.McKissic pushed ob at NYG 19 for 56 yards (29-X.McKinney).
- (4:41) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep right to 83-R.Seals-Jones for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.87 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.75 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.87 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.64 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.62 pts |
| QB keep | +0.56 pts |
| Play action | +0.28 pts |
| Quick out | +0.21 pts |
| Deep post | +0.19 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.14 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.09 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.21 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.26 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.46 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.49 pts |
| Outside run | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -1.05 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.08 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.17 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.21 pts |
| End-around | -1.30 pts |
| Spike it | -1.75 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.