Seahawks vs Cardinals — Week 18, 2021
The Seahawks took over leading 38-30 with 1:12 left, 1st & 10 at the Cardinals 47, 1 timeout in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 38, Cardinals 30. Seahawks won 38-30 — the drive time expired.
Seahawks ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. Near midfield, 1:12 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 99.2% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 98.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:12) 20-R.Penny up the middle to ARI 38 for 9 yards (7-B.Murphy).
- (1:06) 20-R.Penny up the middle to ARI 30 for 8 yards (9-I.Simmons).
- (:19) 3-R.Wilson kneels to ARI 31 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.36 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.73 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.36 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.44 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Outside run | -0.79 pts |
| Inside run | -0.85 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.03 pts |
| Quick out | -1.36 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.36 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.37 pts |
| QB keep | -1.79 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.81 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.84 pts |
| Play action | -3.29 pts |
| Curl route | -3.75 pts |
| End-around | -5.74 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.80 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.78 pts |
| Deep post | -9.71 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.74 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.73 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.