Raiders vs Dolphins — Week 3, 2021
The Raiders took over leading 25-17 with 4:29 left, 1st & 10 at their own 43, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 31, Dolphins 28. Raiders won 31-28 — the drive turned it over.
Raiders ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 43, 4:29 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 96.0% for Raiders. Our model starts at 93.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:29) 31-P.Barber up the middle to LV 41 for -2 yards (94-C.Wilkins).
- (3:47) 31-P.Barber right guard to LV 42 for 1 yard (90-J.Jenkins).
- (3:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LV 27 for -15 yards (29-Br.Jones).
- (3:39) 6-A.Cole punts 67 yards to MIA 6, Center-47-T.Sieg. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at MIA 18 for 12 yards (87-F.Moreau).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.23 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.95 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.23 pts |
| Outside run | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.45 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.45 pts |
| Inside run | -0.59 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.71 pts |
| Quick out | -1.10 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.13 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.15 pts |
| QB keep | -1.35 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.46 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.54 pts |
| Play action | -2.82 pts |
| Curl route | -3.17 pts |
| End-around | -5.11 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.33 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.22 pts |
| Deep post | -8.89 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.03 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.95 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.