49ers vs Lions — Week 1, 2021
The 49ers took over leading 41-33 with 1:06 left, 1st & 10 at the Lions 43, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 41, Lions 33. 49ers won 41-33 — the drive turnover.
49ers ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. In Lions territory, 1:06 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 99.3% for 49ers. Our model starts at 98.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:06) 25-E.Mitchell left end to DET 47 for 1 yard (54-A.McNeill; 55-D.Barnes).
- (1:02) 25-E.Mitchell up the middle to DET 46 for 1 yard (55-D.Barnes).
- (:58) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 19-D.Samuel to DET 35 for 11 yards (90-T.Flowers). FUMBLES (90-T.Flowers), RECOVERED by DET-26-I.Melifonwu at DET 30.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.31 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.77 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.31 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.45 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Outside run | -0.82 pts |
| Inside run | -0.87 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.06 pts |
| Quick out | -1.38 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.38 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.39 pts |
| QB keep | -1.83 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.84 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.86 pts |
| Play action | -3.32 pts |
| Curl route | -3.79 pts |
| End-around | -5.78 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.83 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.81 pts |
| Deep post | -9.75 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.78 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.77 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.