Falcons vs Panthers — Week 14, 2021
The Falcons took over leading 29-21 with 3:06 left, 1st & 10 at their own 40, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 29, Panthers 21. Falcons won 29-21 — the drive time expired.
Falcons ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 40, 3:06 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 96.3% for Falcons. Our model starts at 96.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:01) 28-M.Davis right tackle to ATL 34 for 4 yards (7-S.Thompson; 21-J.Chinn).
- (2:56) 28-M.Davis right tackle to ATL 36 for 2 yards (90-D.Jones).
- (2:51) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 8-K.Pitts to CAR 41 for 23 yards (31-J.Burris; 4-J.Carter).
- (2:04) 28-M.Davis right guard to CAR 38 for 3 yards (29-R.Melvin).
- (2:00) 28-M.Davis left tackle to CAR 33 for 5 yards (21-J.Chinn).
- (1:52) 2-M.Ryan up the middle to CAR 30 for 3 yards (90-D.Jones).
- (1:06) 2-M.Ryan kneels to CAR 31 for -1 yards.
- (:36) 2-M.Ryan kneels to CAR 32 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.83 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.35 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.83 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Outside run | -0.55 pts |
| Inside run | -0.68 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.84 pts |
| Quick out | -1.20 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.22 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.23 pts |
| QB keep | -1.55 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.61 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.66 pts |
| Play action | -3.03 pts |
| Curl route | -3.44 pts |
| End-around | -5.41 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.55 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.49 pts |
| Deep post | -9.30 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.39 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.35 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.