Vikings vs Steelers — Week 14, 2021
The Vikings took over leading 36-28 with 4:14 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 36, Steelers 28. Vikings won 36-28 — the drive turned it over.
Vikings ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 25, 4:14 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.9% for Vikings. Our model starts at 93.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:14) 33-D.Cook right tackle to MIN 24 for -1 yards (28-M.Killebrew, 34-Te.Edmunds).
- (3:35) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 18-J.Jefferson to MIN 26 for 12 yards (35-A.Maulet).
- (2:51) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 33-D.Cook to MIN 43 for 17 yards (34-Te.Edmunds).
- (2:38) 25-A.Mattison up the middle to MIN 43 for no gain (93-J.Schobert).
- (2:34) 25-A.Mattison right tackle to MIN 45 for 2 yards (25-A.Witherspoon).
- (2:30) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 17-K.Osborn.
- (2:26) 3-J.Berry punts 51 yards to PIT 4, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-45-T.Dye.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.15 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.95 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.15 pts |
| Outside run | -0.39 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.46 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Inside run | -0.62 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.71 pts |
| Quick out | -1.10 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.13 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.15 pts |
| QB keep | -1.35 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.45 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.57 pts |
| Play action | -2.82 pts |
| Curl route | -3.16 pts |
| End-around | -5.13 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.33 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.22 pts |
| Deep post | -8.88 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.03 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.95 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.